This text was originally published by Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center as part of a compilation called "What Comes Next? Iran Through a Middle Power Lens." Dr. Kassenova, who heads our Program on Central Asia, is an expert with Belfer's Middle Powers Project.
Located on the outskirts of the Middle East, Kazakhstan is directly affected by the ongoing hostilities and is deeply worried about their consequences. Kazakhstan is evacuating its citizens from the region, while its businesses are suspending transportation of agricultural and other goods to Iran and the Gulf countries. The war is ushering in an uncertain future pregnant with significant risks for Central Asia. Nobody can predict what will happen to Iran, but it is not hard to imagine scenarios featuring destabilization, waves of refugees, and smuggling of weapons, oil, and fissile material by criminal groups.
The war is also putting a shadow on the opportunities that Kazakhstan has been investing in. Geographically, Iran provides the shortest route to the open seas, optimal for trading with the Gulf countries, with which Kazakhstan has developed strong economic and political ties. With the Northern corridor via Russia constrained by the war in Ukraine, and the Southern corridor via Iran at risk, travel and trade across the Eurasian continent is limited to a sliver in the middle — the so-called Middle Corridor, connecting China, Central Asia (Kazakhstan being the lynchpin), the South Caucasus, and Europe. The route is under development, but it is challenging and vulnerable.
Iran, a perennial thorn in the back of its Arab neighbors and Israel, has been a friendly partner for Central Asian countries since the early days of their independence. It helped end the civil war in Tajikistan in the 1990s, and played a constructive role in negotiations on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Although the great potential of Kazakhstan-Iran bilateral trade and investment was constrained by the U.S. sanctions, the two sides never gave up their efforts. Not long before the war, in December 2025, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Kazakhstan and signed agreements aimed at enhancing cooperation, most notably in transport, transit, and logistics. They confirmed the plans to double freight volumes on the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway by 2030 and build a dedicated terminal near Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf.
Another important aspect of Kazakhstan-Iran cooperation is nuclear non-proliferation. In 2013, Kazakhstan hosted talks between Iran and six world powers (P5+1). In 2017, Kazakhstan opened an International Atomic Energy Agency Low-Enriched Uranium Bank, designed to provide countries, such as Iran, with an alternative source of nuclear fuel material for peaceful purposes (rather than them pursuing sensitive uranium enrichment technology domestically). The choice of Kazakhstan as the host of the bank took into account not only its impeccable non-proliferation credentials, but also its status as a developing, Muslim country, with good relations with Iran. The Kazakh leadership had supported the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), informally known as Iran Nuclear Deal, till its collapse in 2016.
As in the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, Kazakhstan has well established partnerships with all the parties to the conflict — Iran, Israel, the United States, and the Gulf countries, and it does its best to maintain neutrality, while calling for de-escalation. President Tokayev sent messages of support to the “brotherly people” of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan, and held telephone conversations with the amir of Qatar, the president of the UAE, and the sultan of Oman. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs made a statement expressing condolences to the people of Iran over the loss of civilian lives, including children, as well as members of the senior leadership of the Islamic Republic. Notably, it emphasized the importance of preserving humanity in times of armed conflict. In 2024, together with Brazil, China, France, Jordan, and South Africa, Kazakhstan launched the Global Initiative to Strengthen Political Commitment to International Humanitarian Law.
Given its position, Kazakhstan could play a role in reducing tensions in the Middle East. Earlier, President Tokayev joined both the Abraham Accords and the Board of Peace. However, there are obvious limits to what it can do in the context of a crumbling international order and disregard for international law.
Senior Fellow and Director, Program on Central Asia, Davis Center
