Trends in Kazakhstan’s Freedom and Prosperity

Nargis Kassenova, director of our Program on Central Asia, has contributed a chapter on her native Kazakhstan to the Atlantic Council’s  “2025 Atlas: Freedom and Prosperity Around the World,” a new trend-tracking analysis of 18 countries. Below is a summary of some key points from her chapter, published online Feb. 5.

• While the government’s commitment to economic liberalization has been fairly consistent and genuine, its record in the areas of good governance, democratization, and human rights could be characterized as patchy at best.
• Astana's divergent paths within the Atlantic Council’s three freedom subindexes — economic, political, and legal — underscore the differences in Kazakhstan’s commitment to each area.
• Kazakhstan’s overall Prosperity Index score has been above the regional average — not surprising, since it’s a major exporter of oil, metals, and wheat.
• However, economic growth does not necessarily translate into reductions in poverty and inequality. This applies to education, as well as economic inequality per se.
• President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s reform agenda points to further liberalization of the political system, where we can expect at least modest improvements.
• Kazakhstan wants deeper relations with the West in order to develop and not be overwhelmed by its giant neighbors, Russia and China. However, it needs to build those relationships gently, to avoid angering Moscow and annoying Beijing too much.
• Unlike in the 1990s, the supremacy of the West is now being challenged globally and new approaches and ways of dealing with “middle powers” like Kazakhstan are needed.
• The author envisages three scenarios and details the conditions for each:
  1. The optimistic scenario — “more freedom and prosperity,” which would hinge on successful liberalizing reforms and a benign external environment;
  2. “Prosperity at the expense of freedom,” where leadership tightens control over society with the aim of becoming a functional authoritarian state; and
  3. “No freedom and no prosperity,” a sad story of Kazakhstan imploding from internal tensions and/or destabilized from outside.