Kazakhstan's Double Hedging Act

Below are the key takeaways from Dr. Kassenova's report "Kazakhstan: An Aspiring Middle Power in the Heart of Eurasia" for the Middle Powers Project at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Kazakhstan is emerging as a pragmatic middle power, leveraging its strategic position at the crossroads of Eurasia and its vast reserves of energy and critical minerals to gain global relevance. Through multilateral engagement, niche diplomacy, and careful hedging between major powers, it positions itself as both a regional leader and a stabilizing “connector” in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape.

Key Judgments

• Recently, Kazakhstan has begun positioning itself as a middle power. While a “lightweight” by conventional capability metrics, it has assets that make it significant for the rest of the world. Its geostrategic location at the heart of Eurasia makes it both an important connector and buffer between Europe, Russia, the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia. It is also a regional leader in Central Asia.
• Kazakhstan’s material and economic assets amplify its international importance. It is a dynamic and ambitious upper-middle-income country whose wealth comes from oil, uranium, and other metals. Kazakhstan is the world’s top producer of uranium and holds substantial reserves of critical minerals (zinc, copper, nickel, lithium, and rare earths), making it a key player for the global energy transition. 
• Kazakhstan’s foreign policy has strong middle-power features. It is a staunch multilateralist, actively cooperating with other states through the United Nations and other formats. It contributes to conflict mediation and resolution by bridging actors and seeking compromises. Over recent decades, Kazakhstan has consistently steered Eurasian geopolitics away from sharp divisions and fragmentation, positioning itself as a “good global citizen.” Kazakh diplomats have also successfully practiced “niche diplomacy” in the area of nuclear nonproliferation, and the country is increasingly active in sustainable development. 
• Kazakhstan is a hedger. Since the early years of independence, its leadership has successfully practiced a so-called multi-vector foreign policy, strengthening ties with the main poles of power: Russia, the United States and Europe, and China. Kazakhstan has also fostered “strategic partnerships” with Turkey, Japan, South Korea, and the Gulf countries. This approach has diminished Russia’s traditional dominance without antagonizing Moscow. 
• Russia’s war against Ukraine has made Kazakhstan’s balancing act even more difficult, and its success (or failure) is existential. At present, Kazakhstan is pursuing a double hedging act, leaning more toward China to hedge against Russia, while leaning more toward Turkey, the EU, the United States, the Gulf countries, Japan, and South Korea to hedge against both China and Russia. By softly balancing these different “vectors” and carefully calibrating partnerships, Kazakhstan preserves strategic flexibility and gains from diversified cooperation. It has also increased efforts to foster regional cooperation in Central Asia.
• While Kazakhstan is used to balancing relations with Russia and the United States, managing the China-U.S. rivalry is a newer challenge. China is seen as a benevolent regional power and geographic neighbor, and the countries share views on many global governance issues. This makes continued alignment certain to continue and grow stronger. However, Astana is also eager to develop its strategic partnership with the United States. At present, the Trump administration seems to favor Kazakhstan, drawn by its critical minerals and its accessibility as a diplomatic partner; at the same time, the broader U.S. foreign policy trajectory seems oriented toward the dismantlement of international order, posing risks for smaller countries like Kazakhstan.
• Kazakhstan actively pursues cooperation with both the United States and China in energy transition and digital transformation. China has the will and capacity to be its primary partner in these areas. However, national security concerns about diversification and muted concerns about excessive technological dependence on China motivate Kazakhstan to develop a strong partnership with the United States. While there is room to maneuver at this early stage, this might not be the case later, particularly if the technological decoupling between the United States and China continues. Kazakhstan can play a limited role in mitigating such decoupling by working with like-minded countries that view forced alignment as generally and economically damaging.
• To maintain its balancing act amid intensifying great-power competition, Kazakhstan increasingly relies on relations with other middle powers. These states serve as like-minded partners in promoting global trade, transport connectivity, green transition, and digital transformation. The country’s flourishing strategic partnerships with Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore are particularly important. Apart from a comprehensive cooperation agenda, these countries also serve as role models and gateways to their respective regions. 
• Growing cooperation and connectivity within and among regions, led by middle powers, is a defining trend. Kazakhstan, together with Uzbekistan, promotes Central Asian regional cooperation, cohesion, and international standing. If successful, Central Asia could play a constructive role in Eurasian geopolitics and geoeconomics, working in concert with the Gulf and ASEAN regions.